The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is entering a decisive decade. According to SkyNRG’s latest SAF Market Outlook, global SAF demand is projected to reach 12.8 million tonnes by 2030. This rapid growth reflects both policy-driven demand, particularly in Europe, and increasing voluntary uptake from airlines seeking to reduce lifecycle emissions. However, the supply side faces structural constraints that are becoming increasingly visible.

At present, the SAF market remains heavily reliant on the HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) pathway. While HEFA has provided a critical early route to commercialisation, its dependence on waste lipids—such as used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats—raises significant scalability concerns. Approximately 85% of these feedstocks are already under pressure from competing sectors, most notably road transport, where renewable diesel production continues to absorb a large share of available supply. And over 90% of these feedstocks are currently imported into the EU for SAF production.

At the same time, global trade patterns for waste lipids are beginning to shift. Asia, historically a major exporter of used cooking oil, is increasingly recognising its own domestic SAF production potential. Rather than exporting feedstocks, countries in the region are moving to retain these resources to support local refining capacity and capture greater value within their own energy transitions. This trend is likely to further constrain feedstock availability for European producers.

SkyNRG’s analysis again highlights the “HEFA Tipping point” around 2030. While announced and operational HEFA capacity already exceed the availability of domestic waste oils, the pathway is expected to remain a cornerstone of SAF supply in the near term. However, beyond 2030, the current limitations of lipid-based feedstocks become increasingly apparent.

For the SAF industry, this means two opportunities (to be realised in parallel):

First, there is a need to expand and diversify the feedstock base for HEFA itself, including exploring novel lipid sources, such as microalgae.

Second, alternative SAF pathways must be accelerated to commercial scale. Technologies such as alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), and power-to-liquids (PtL) will be essential to meeting long-term demand while reducing reliance on constrained biological resources.

In this context, the coming years represent a big opportunity for the industry. The foundations laid before 2030 will determine whether SAF can scale in a way that is both economically viable and environmentally credible. In an article published in May this year in the Journal for Biomass and Bioenergy on ScienceDirect, microalgae are assessed as a strategic diversification option for HEFA feedstocks, underscoring the importance of a comprehensive S-LCA and techno-economic analysis to identify and address local hotspots.

There is no one silver bullet, supplementary feedstock options for HEFA, combined with a strong market development in the e-SAF and advanced bio-fuels sectors, are all important parts of the much bigger SAF puzzle of the future.